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美国卫星捕获朝鲜导弹异动,疑测试长程导弹  

2012-11-13 10:11:29|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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美国卫星捕获朝鲜导弹异动,发现其不断测试火箭引擎,疑未停止发展长程导弹。

This Sept. 17, 2012 satellite image provided by DigitalGlobe and annotated by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 38 North, shows a facility in Sohae, North Korea where analysts believe rocket engines have been tested in a sign North Korea continues to develop its long-range ballistic missiles. The analysis provided to The Associated Press is based on satellite images taken as recently as late September of the Sohae site on the secretive country's northwest coast. In April, the North conducted a failed attempt to launch a rocket from there carrying a satellite into space in defiance of a U.N. ban. The website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS said Monday Nov. 12, 2012 that it remains unclear whether the North is preparing a rocket launch but predicted it may embark on new rocket and nuclear tests in the first half of 2013. (AP Photo/DigitalGlobe/ U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS)

之前屡次试射长程导弹失败的朝鲜,若在不久的将来测试长程导弹成功,势必进一步点燃亚洲导弹军备竞赛。

最新消息指,台湾完成测试射程涵盖钓鱼岛的超音速反舰导弹雄3(三倍音速),加强对大陆的战术防范。

美国卫星捕获朝鲜导弹异动,疑测试长程导弹 - 詹晟 - 詹晟的博客
 

但无论如何,朝鲜领导人金正恩即便未有近期把导弹测试安排上日程,但和上次一样,美媒体的曝料,已经成功吸引全球目光。

之前屡次发射失败:

资料:

2012朝鲜试射长程导弹

2012朝鲜自 1998年来第四度试射长程导弹,但四次都失败告终,暂时不知试射失败原因,但凸显朝鲜仍未掌握洲际导弹技术。日本 NHK电视台引述火箭工程学专家八坂哲雄说:「火箭飞行一分钟后坠海,表明第一节火箭引擎附近发生某种故障,结果是引擎爆炸,或有可能是因脱离预定轨道,朝鲜自行引爆。」南韩专家认为与燃料和氧化剂洩漏有关。美国火箭专家指出,过去 14年朝鲜试射四次长程导弹,不是第三节火箭引擎未能分离外,就是一升空就爆炸,显示朝鲜尚未掌握洲际导弹技术。导弹升空后越早解体,就越难蒐集数据,美国和盟友肯定在朝鲜这次失败发射中,比朝鲜收集了更多导弹数据,但美国绝不会跟朝鲜分享有关数据。美国一名高层官员难掩喜悦之情说:「朝鲜导弹技术没有向前迈进,反而是胶着甚至倒退。」朝鲜问题专家诺兰( Marcus Noland)指,朝鲜原先想在明天(周日)金日成百岁冥寿前成功射衞星,向国内外证明朝鲜进入「强盛大国」年代,还邀请百名外国记者见证,结果是在全世界面前出丑,刚接掌党政军大权的金正恩誓难嚥下这次重大羞辱,相信「有科学家和工程师可能成代罪羔羊,面临被处决或放逐到劳改营的命运」。

 

Satellite imagery shows NKorea missile activity

By MATTHEW PENNINGTON | Associated Press – 2 hrs 57 mins ago
  •  
    Enlarge Photo

    Associated Press/DigitalGlobe/ U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS - This Sept. 17, 2012 satellite image provided by DigitalGlobe and annotated by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International …more  Studies, 38 North, shows a facility in Sohae, North Korea where analysts believe rocket engines have been tested in a sign North Korea continues to develop its long-range ballistic missiles. The analysis provided to The Associated Press is based on satellite images taken as recently as late September of the Sohae site on the secretive country's northwest coast. In April, the North conducted a failed attempt to launch a rocket from there carrying a satellite into space in defiance of a U.N. ban. The website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS said Monday Nov. 12, 2012 that it remains unclear whether the North is preparing a rocket launch but predicted it may embark on new rocket and nuclear tests in the first half of 2013. (AP Photo/DigitalGlobe/ U.S.-Korea Institute at SAIS)  less 

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Satellite imagery indicates North Korea has been testing rocket engines, a sign it continues to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, a U.S. academic institute said Monday.

The analysis provided to The Associated Press is based on satellite images taken as recently as late September of the Sohae site on the secretive country's northwest coast. In April, the North launched a rocket from there in a failed attempt to propel a satellite into space in defiance of a U.N. ban.

The analysis on the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, which is called "38 North," said it remains unclear whether the North is preparing another rocket launch but predicted it may embark on new rocket and nuclear tests in the first half of 2013.

The analysis underscores the challenges posed by the North's weapons programs to the United States and its allies as President Barack Obama heads into his second term. Washington's most recent attempt to negotiate a freeze in the North's nuclear program and a test moratorium in exchange for food aid collapsed with the April launch that the U.S. regarded as a cover for testing ballistic missile technology.

In 2009, North Korea tested a long-range missile and its second nuclear weapon within months of Obama taking office, and the 38 North analysis says North Korea may conduct new tests in the aftermath of presidential elections recently completed in U.S. and due in December in South Korea. That could be viewed as a tactic to exert more pressure on the close allies as the North seeks recognition as a nuclear power.

Last month, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said North Korea continues to prepare for such tests, and the North, angered by Washington's recent agreement to let Seoul possess missiles capable of hitting all of its territory, has recently claimed that the U.S. mainland is within range of its missiles.

According to South Korea's Defense Ministry, North Korean missiles are believed to have a range of up to about 4,160 miles, putting parts of Alaska within reach. But the North is not believed to have mastered the technology needed to hit a distant target and miniaturize a nuclear warhead to mount on a missile. The North has a spotty record in test launches, raising doubts about whether it is truly capable of a long-distance attack.

The 38 North analysis concludes that since the failed launch on April 13 of the Unha-3 rocket that disintegrated shortly after takeoff, the North has conducted at least two, and possibly more, tests of large rocket motors at a test site about a half mile away. The tests are critical for the development of new rockets.

"Pyongyang's large motor tests are another clear sign that its missile program is moving forward. Whether there will be another long-range missile test this spring remains unclear but is a distinct possibility," said Joel Wit, a former U.S. State Department official and editor of 38 North.

An April 9 satellite image shows what appear to be dozens of fuel tanks near a stand used for conducting tests of rocket engines. A Sept. 17 image shows the tanks are no longer there, and a flame trench has been stained orange and surrounding vegetation has been burned from the exhaust of an engine. An image from Sept. 28 indicates a further test has taken place.

The analysis was written by Nick Hansen, a retired expert in imagery technology with a 43-year experience in national intelligence.

He concludes the tests were likely of the first-stage engines of the Unha-3 or the new, bigger KN-08 long-range missile first viewed in a military parade in Pyongyang shortly after the April launch attempt.

The capabilities of the KN-08 and whether it could pose a potential threat to the continental United States remains unclear. Some analysts have also questioned whether the half-dozen of KN-08 missiles shown at that parade were genuine or just rigged up for show.

The analysis by 38 North says the Sept. 28 images also show construction work on the upper platform of a launch tower at Sohae to enable it to accommodate even larger rockets than the Unha-3 or KN-08.

____

Online: http://38north.org/

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